Real Estate in the Time of Cholera: The Aftermath, Part 1 – Brokerages

So here we are in the Brave New World of quarantines, lockdowns and barely contained (?) panic. May it be short, as it is simply unsustainable over the long haul. Activity will be grinding to a halt if it hasn’t already. We all know the main stories in the news — stock market plummeting, the … Read more

[VIP] Realogy, Q4 and Full Year 2019: Darkest Before the Dawn?

I realize this is almost two weeks after Realogy reported, but… between international travel and my computer giving up the ghost, it’s been a bit of a challenge to write this. It likely would have been a challenge anyhow, because of how much I like Realogy (I have written often about my biases). Q4 was … Read more

[VIP] RE/MAX Q4, 2019: Back to Basics

In the aftermath of a disappointing Q3, I wrote: One of my biggest takeaways from this earnings call is how much of the positive spin was put on October. For example, Karri Callahan mentions seeing some “positive traction” on agent count in October, contrasting with last October when RE/MAX lost hundreds of agents. Or there’s … Read more

[VIP] The Notorious Interview: John Campbell, Stephens

I speak again with John Campbell, Managing Director of Equity Research at Stephens, Inc., a powerhouse regional investment bank and private equity firm based in Little Rock. He is one of the finest analysts of the small corner of the public markets that real estate represents and I have consistently found his coverage to be … Read more

[VIP] Zillow, Q4/2019: Turn the Page

In the Q3/2019 writeup, I wrote that Zillow is not experimenting, but trying to pivot with great delicacy: My take on Q3 is that Zillow is in the midst of a BCG 2×2 Matrix exercise and a delicate point (in a good way) in the transition from Zillow 1.0 to Zillow 2.0. What they’re doing … Read more

[VIP] Redfin, Q4/2019: Strong Results All Around, and Signs of Surprising Convergence

It’s tough to deliver such a fantastic quarter as Redfin did in Q4 of 2019, and for the full year of 2019. I mean, they just beat ass all over the place. Revenues, profits, traffic, productivity — Redfin just about killed it across the board. The one exception comes from its iBuyer business, RedfinNow. And … Read more