A core principle of mine as some of you know from podcasts is “Strong opinions, weakly held.” That is, when presented with new data, new evidence, then my opinions are subject to change. Last year, I wrote something up on BrightMLS’s Off-MLS Study saying that the conclusions of the report were overstated and based on … Read more
A quick thought today, brought on by a brief Twitter exchange that is otherwise unrelated. It is an economic law that you get more of what you subsidize, and less of what you tax. Human beings are remarkably good at responding to incentives and disincentives. So we subsidize solar power, EVs and corn — voila, … Read more
From Prof. Anthony Sanders over at Confounded Interest, one of the best housing economics blogs out there, we get this story: Miami, Tampa, Dallas and Phoenix (red states) are growing at over 30% YoY. Boston, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Minneapolis, New York, Portland and Washington DC (blue states) are all growing at over 10% YoY. Cleveland … Read more
This is just a quick look-see. Thanks to Jay Parsons, an economist with RealPage, I found the RealPage 2022 Market-Rate Apartment Affordability Report. There are some interesting findings in there with the main takeaway being that market-rate (i.e., non-subsidized) rentals are doing just great: But this first-of-its-kind study into one of the largest segments of … Read more
Thanks to a video from Digital Asset News, I found out about this website called Truflation. It’s free to use so go ahead and enjoy (?) yourselves in exploring what the real change in cost of living might be in the U.S. Since the government will be releasing its official June CPI print tomorrow, and … Read more
I’ve been writing the long Four Horsemen series, and one of the biggest issues I had to tackle was housing affordability. The federal guidelines from HUD says housing is affordable when gross costs are no more than 30% of the gross income of the residents. Since gross costs include things like utilities, property taxes, mortgage … Read more
A friend and subscriber who has been reading my stuff messaged me to ask why I do not believe the “home prices will fall” narrative. I figured, why not let it all hang out, right? Keep in mind that I’m no economist, and not a macro investment analyst. Keep in mind that I could be … Read more
Zillow released its Q1, 2022 iBuyer report a few days ago and well, it was kind of drowned out by the CPI print and the ensuing market collapse, including mortgages going over 6%. There are some interesting things in the report, but I have a simple and quick question. And it’s not a rhetorical question; … Read more
From my friend Kevin Oakley, I see this news on Twitter: Kevin Oakley on Twitter: “https://t.co/FTcmvQa2GX? @AliWolfEcon @robhahn / Twitter” https://t.co/FTcmvQa2GX? @AliWolfEcon @robhahn The linked article is a longtime mortgage broker Louis Barnes sounding the alarm: During the last forty-four years, my days have begun and ended with the mortgage market. Four painful moments stand … Read more